Morning Report: Markets quiet ahead of US Payrolls

Morning Report: 07.45 London

  • It’s the first Friday of the month, which means most investor’s attention is focused on the big monthly announcement- US Non Farm Payrolls. Analysts are expecting a rise in activity to 173k. This is above last month, but hardly setting a roaring pace for growth. The US unemployment rate will also be keenly followed; expected to come in at 8.2%, jobless levels have been stubbornly high since 2008.
  • Markets have been dead overnight and we’re unlikely to see any real movement until European retail sales at 10.00.
  • The NZD/ USD is stabilising after last night’s sell off, but the pair is still down 2.68% in the last five days.
  • The EUR/ GBP continues to show relative weakness with the downtrend continuing from the end of March.
  • Gold is also continuing to struggle, with the dollar index rising.
Coming up today: 
  • The aforementioned US Non Farm payrolls are released at 13.30.
  • European retail sales are released at 10.00.
  • Canadian Ivey PMI numbers are released at 15.00.
Bet Idea: 
  • Making any sort of prediction before US Non Farm Payrolls is particularly difficult, with the numbers and often the reaction being something of a lottery.
  • However when we take into account the French and Greek elections, there is a lot riding on results in the next few days. There could therefore be some big movements between now and Monday.
  • There direction of this movement is uncertain but in pairs like the AUD/ USD the risk is an exaggerated move to the downside, especially with a big gap beneath 1.0260. If there is going to be a reaction to NFP, the sell off could run and run.
  • A good way to play this could be a LOWER trade predicting that the AUD/ USD will close below 1.0225 in 3 days time for a potential return of 165%.
  • You can find direct links to this bet idea here and here.


This is presented as an idea to stimulate fixed odds financial betting ideas and is not financial advice. 

Summary: 


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