Morning Report: Markets quiet ahead of US Payrolls

Morning Report: 07.45 London

  • It’s the first Friday of the month, which means most investor’s attention is focused on the big monthly announcement- US Non Farm Payrolls. Analysts are expecting a rise in activity to 173k. This is above last month, but hardly setting a roaring pace for growth. The US unemployment rate will also be keenly followed; expected to come in at 8.2%, jobless levels have been stubbornly high since 2008.
  • Markets have been dead overnight and we’re unlikely to see any real movement until European retail sales at 10.00.
  • The NZD/ USD is stabilising after last night’s sell off, but the pair is still down 2.68% in the last five days.
  • The EUR/ GBP continues to show relative weakness with the downtrend continuing from the end of March.
  • Gold is also continuing to struggle, with the dollar index rising.
Coming up today: 
  • The aforementioned US Non Farm payrolls are released at 13.30.
  • European retail sales are released at 10.00.
  • Canadian Ivey PMI numbers are released at 15.00.
Bet Idea: 
  • Making any sort of prediction before US Non Farm Payrolls is particularly difficult, with the numbers and often the reaction being something of a lottery.
  • However when we take into account the French and Greek elections, there is a lot riding on results in the next few days. There could therefore be some big movements between now and Monday.
  • There direction of this movement is uncertain but in pairs like the AUD/ USD the risk is an exaggerated move to the downside, especially with a big gap beneath 1.0260. If there is going to be a reaction to NFP, the sell off could run and run.
  • A good way to play this could be a LOWER trade predicting that the AUD/ USD will close below 1.0225 in 3 days time for a potential return of 165%.
  • You can find direct links to this bet idea here and here.

This is presented as an idea to stimulate fixed odds financial betting ideas and is not financial advice. 


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